Policy Brief

The Libyan Revolution: Outcome and Perspectives – The Social Context

November 2011

Abstract

With the capture of Muammar al-Gaddafi and the announcement by NATO that its aerial operations over Libya would be terminated by the end of October, the war in Libya has finally come to an end. The formal declaration of the “liberation”, however, signals the end of the “grace period” in which the Feindbild of Gaddafi could conceal the fault lines fragmenting Libya society. Libyan society is still patterned along the lines of the traditional patrimonial system. Political decision-making is performed within the traditional circles of the elite, whose actual power depends on their closeness to the ruler. The disappearance of Gaddafi has not changed the pattern. In fact, with the delicate balance held by Gaddafi gone, the political actors would have to find a new balance or the battle for power will go on until one actor come out as the strongest.

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