Paper
Syria at the Crossroads: Energy Geopolitics, Corridor Competition, and Strategic Connectivity in the Eastern Mediterranean
Abstract
The future of Syria’s energy is inseparable from its political transition, its reintegration into regional networks, and its capacity to build institutions that citizens and investors can trust. After more than a decade of conflict, the fall of the Assad regime in late 2024 opened a new chapter defined not just by the imperative of reconstruction, but also by the need of establishing governance structures capable of transforming ambitions and aspirations into sustained prosperity.
This paper examines Syria’s energy landscape across four dimensions. It begins with an assessment of Syria’s post-regime energy profile, the state of its oil, gas, electricity, and renewables sectors, and what the new government is doing and aspiring to do. It then turns to the governance imperative: the frameworks, institutions, and transparency standards that will determine whether energy becomes a vehicle for trust-building or a source of renewed grievance. The third dimension is geopolitical: Syria’s evolving relationships with Gulf states, Türkiye, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, European partners, and most importantly the relationship with the United States (US), and how those relationships intersect with the great competition over connectivity corridors in the region. Finally, it traces Syria’s positioning within the Eastern Mediterranean energy architecture, including its relationship to the EastMed framework and the offshore dimension.
The central argument is that Syria is a potential energy connectivity partner, one whose geographic position, if matched by credible institutions and transparent governance, could make it a significant connector in the region. Realising that potential, ideally it will require Syria to pursue a sequence: domestic governance reform first, regional integration second, and transformation of the energy sector as a foundation for the broader social contract. But in a country that is trying to leave decades of isolation behind to reintegrate into the international fold, the process is likely to be nonlinear, uneven, and subject to significant political and institutional disruption.
